POLYMARKET / INDEPENDENT TOOL
POLYMARKET / INDEPENDENT TOOLPolymarket
Airdrop Checker
Check public Polymarket wallet activity and explore hypothetical airdrop scenarios. Adjust your assumptions to see what drives the estimate. This independent tool does not confirm an allocation.
INDEPENDENT · UNOFFICIALIndependent tool by BlockCraft. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket.
01 / PUBLIC INPUTS
Start with a public wallet
Public whale example — hypothetical
A dated snapshot of the official all-time volume leaderboard’s top-ranked public account. Starting assumptions: USD 250M pool, USD 500M total eligible fees, 50% probability, no cap. These are assumptions, not announced rewards or eligibility. Replace the address or clear it to check another wallet.
Official leaderboard documentation ↗No wallet connection. Submitted addresses and lookup results are not stored.
Inspect observations and privacy
Your address is sent to Polymarket’s public APIs for this request. BlockCraft does not store submitted wallets or lookup results. The initial example is a separate, dated public leaderboard snapshot. No analytics or wallet tracking.
Observed profile
Both-sides cash volume in USD, full available API history. This is not a verified eligible-volume measure. API fee charges and refund-adjusted net cost are different. Fee amounts use their own observation timestamp; unknown is not zero.
The public profile’s proxy wallet was used for this lookup.
03 / SCENARIO OUTPUT
Estimated airdrop
Probability-weighted scenario
Pool-scenario spread0.5×–1.5× pools, not confidence bounds
The actual outcome can be zero. This is not a payout range, token price forecast or recommendation to trade.
See the breakdown and sensitivity
If this model were used
Enter a contribution to calculate a scenario.
Pool sensitivity
Same contribution and probability; hypothetical pool at 0.5×, 1× and 1.5×. These are scenarios, not confidence bounds.
pool × min(contribution ÷ eligible total, 1), then optional cap; weighted result × assumed probability.
Adjust your scenarioContribution, pool, probability and cap
02 / ASSUMPTIONS
Define the scenario
All settings below are assumptions, not Polymarket rules. Profile age and social links do not add an invented eligibility bonus.
User assumptionFilled from the selected observed metric when available; you can replace it. Keep its scope and period consistent with the denominator.
Leave at 0 for no cap. Any real cap or allocation rule is unknown.
04 / MARKET CONTEXT
Market context, refreshed weekly
Polymarket International only. Provider fee totals are reference context, not verified airdrop denominators. US and other scopes are not silently combined.
Aggregate refresh pending. Manual assumptions still work.
DefiLlama · Polymarket International ↗05 / METHODS & LIMITS
Read the model before the number
What is observed?
Public Polymarket Data API v2 supplies profile creation time, full-history cash volume and fee atoms where available. Gamma supplies a public X handle where it is published. A missing response, unknown field or absent profile is shown as unavailable rather than zero.
What is assumed?
This tool models a linear share of a hypothetical USD-valued pool, using either gross fees or volume. Pool size, the eligible denominator, probability, cap and even the allocation basis are user assumptions. It does not infer tokenomics, Sybil filtering, regional eligibility, a snapshot date or official criteria.
Why can inputs disagree?
Volume and fee observations may have different timestamps and scopes. The full-history API volume is both-sides cash volume; fee atoms may include activity outside the aggregate provider’s International scope. Fee refunds and rebates are not interchangeable. Align periods and definitions before comparing contribution shares.
What is not a return calculation?
The result excludes trading P&L, additional fees, opportunity costs, taxes, vesting and token-price changes. More trading can increase losses without creating eligibility. Comparable past airdrops and personal farming results are not used as promised returns or default wallet inputs.
Privacy and data handling
User-submitted wallet input and results stay in this page’s memory and transient server requests. They are not put in URLs, cookies, local storage, databases or analytics. Requests are forwarded to Polymarket, whose infrastructure can observe the requested public address and our server IP. Rate limiting keeps temporary hashed network identifiers, not wallet identities. Weekly tasks update only market-wide aggregate statistics. Clear or leave the page to discard your local result.
Primary documentation
This is an independent BlockCraft tool and is not affiliated with Polymarket.